Don't go dark: Why this shutdown demands a different contractor strategy

Federal workers are "terrified" and "disoriented," according to CNN. And they should be.

This isn't following the usual script. Trump canceled negotiations with Democratic leaders, calling their demands "unserious and ridiculous,” before holding a meeting on Monday that brought no results. 

Republicans need 60 Senate votes but only have 53.

The Trump administration's Office of Management and Budget has told agencies to use shutdowns to permanently cut their workforce.

Molly Reynolds of the Brookings Institution warns that OMB memos "threatening wide-scale federal layoffs" suggest "they might be looking to make the shutdown more painful" than before.

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The last time Trump faced a shutdown over political demands, it lasted 35 days—the longest on record. This time? The divide's deeper. The stakes are higher. And nobody's blinking.

The Brutal Reality for Contractors

During 2018-2019, contractors got nothing. No back pay. No guarantees. Some lost 15% of their annual income. One waited nearly a year for reimbursement.

Federal employees are now guaranteed back pay. Contractors? Still nothing.

But here's what's worse: Last time, your customers came back. This time, they might not.

USAFacts reports the federal workforce has already dropped 3.2%—from 3.06 million in January to 2.92 million by August. That's 140,000 people gone.

Your contracting officer might not survive the cuts. Your program manager could be gone. The people who know your work and fight for your contracts might not be there when funding returns.

Go dark during this shutdown, and you might come back to find your program eliminated, your contacts RIF'd, and your incumbent advantage gone.

The contractors who stayed engaged in 2019 won more recompetes. But they had customers to come back to.

This time, silence could mean you have no one left to come back to.

What Agencies Won't Tell You

Maya Angelou nailed it: "People will forget what you said, people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel."

Right now, your contracting officers are scared. Not about your contract—about their mortgage, their team, their job. And while they're dealing with that, they're asking themselves one question about every contractor:

"Do these people actually care about us, or just their invoice?"

They won't say it out loud. But it's the filter for every decision about who stays and who goes.

Here's how they decide:

• Did you call to check on them as people? "How are you holding up?" not "What’s our funding status?” Most contractors never ask.
• Did you make their job easier or harder? Were you another problem demanding answers, or did you show up with solutions before they asked?
• Did you stay when it got messy? Or go quiet the moment things got complicated?

The contractors who survive are the ones agency leaders can’t imagine losing because of how they showed up when everything fell apart.

Here are five things you can do right now that most of your competitors won’t:

The Engagement Response: 5 Actions That Show You Care

1. Call First, Ask Second

Pick up the phone today. Start with “How are you holding up?” not “What's our funding status?" Ask about their restart worries. Ask who approves deliverables if they're gone. Ask how you can help. The conversation itself sends the message: partner, not vendor.

2. Break Down the Silos

Every person who touches the customer becomes an intelligence gatherer. What's stressing them most? Which decision-makers are vulnerable? What problems are building? Daily standups to share what you're hearing. No intel silos. The team that helps customers think through the mess, not just manage the contract, positions itself well for future contracts.

3. Build Relationships While Competitors Hide

Senior leaders suddenly have fewer meetings. They're accessible. And they're making the hardest decisions of their careers—which programs survive, which people stay. Show up to understand their reality and help them think through it. Not to pitch. Not to position. Agencies can't award contracts during shutdowns, but they're deciding right now who they want when it ends.

4. Document Smart, Lead With Heart

Track costs separately. You need proof for recovery. But lead every conversation with "how can we help" before you think about "how do we recover." Contractors who minimized government pain—not maximized their own recovery—get the benefit of the doubt later.

5. Protect Your People

Federal employees get back pay. Yours don't. Give them options: redeployment, training, PTO bridges. Show them you care, or watch them join competitors who do.

Why This Matters More Than Ever

This isn't about surviving a few weeks. This is about positioning for a permanently smaller government market, where agencies must make tough choices about which contractors are truly essential.

Some of your customers won't be there when this ends. The question is whether you've built relationships that are deep and wide enough to still have advocates when the RIFs are complete.

While your competitors hunker down, you have a choice: go dark and hope, or lean in and prove your value when it matters most.

This shutdown will separate contractors who are truly essential from those who are merely convenient. The next few weeks will decide which one you are.

Nic Coppings is Senior Partner at Hi-Q Group and a 20-year veteran of customer relationship strategy in the federal market. He helps government contractors turn customer intelligence into a competitive advantage—teaching teams to measure relationship quality, not just activity. His clients have won against better-funded competitors by mastering what he calls “the intelligence gap”: understanding which relationships matter, what intel drives decisions, and how to position before the RFP drops.