If, Then: 2026's key pathways, questions and scenarios for GovCon

If 2025 is to be known across the ecosystem as “The Year of The DOGE” and one of massive readjustments on the part of industry …

Then we can at least try to start calling 2026 a year of settling in more to the new order of the business of government contracting, given that DOGE’s activities are now embedded at the department- and agency- level. Always be ready to explain the role of your company as DOGE’s influence and overhang is here to stay, at least for the next three years.

Actually, make that aspect of explaining your company’s role a permanent fabric of the market. Change is embedded into the systems of politics and business, which means people come and go, but clear and concise explanations are at least a good starting point.

If downward pressure on most civilian budgets is a fact of life that the entire industry, and their agency customers as well, will have to navigate for the next three years …

Then first things first, it’s worth pointing out that the natural instinct among many companies is to pull back on the time and energy spent in this section of the market. People and financial resources should go into the “faster swim lanes of spending,” many will say. On the other hand, customers do retain some institutional memory of those that stuck with them in the tough times and others that went elsewhere. Trust and reliability have real currency.

If conventional wisdom holds true that law enforcement budgets are only going up over the next three years and these agencies will need more help from industry …

Then as far as industry is concerned, sales and delivery approaches for this group of customers need to look and sound a whole lot different than what typically works for defense and national security agencies. The technologies and solution sets being offered could be of interest but telling the prospective buyer that it’s just a simple plug-and-play will likely not go over very well. Field agents are a very different user base than soldiers.

If 2025 was the year that the U.S. government customer collective decided “Go Commercial, Buy Commercial, Commercial-First” was its best path forward for acquisition …

Then 2026 looks poised to be a year where, with some help from industry, agencies set some parameters around that concept. After all: the closer one gets to the government mission, the further distance there is from an equivalent commercial use case to plug and play the tech from. Air traffic control especially is on our mind as that nationwide system overhaul gets underway and needs an Apollo project mindset for success.

If there is another big-ticket government effort that needs an Apollo project mindset to make everyone’s hopes and dreams about it come true …

Then cast your eyes at Golden Dome, the Trump administration’s vision for a nationwide missile defense system that the president wants to be operational by the end of his term in 2029. The Missile Defense Agency has largely picked the companies it wants involved and is now moving to compete the work they will do. We use “Apollo project mindset” here too because like with air traffic control, Golden Dome is wicked hard.

If there is one thing *not* to take away from the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul that looks poised to upend government acquisition’s rules of the road for as far as the eyes can see …

Then here’s one for consideration: the government customer will be easier to deal with and satisfy in a world of fewer rules. Yes, there should be less transactional paperwork than before, yes, contracting officers and other acquisition workers should have more flexibility and top cover to take risk, and also yes, the industry should feel less shackled in general. But so is the customer collective. Sellers beware and especially incumbents.

If it’s all said and done that the General Services Administration will indeed be the government’s central clearinghouse for all “common goods and services” including IT …

Then both the GSA and the Office of Management and Budget should be inclined to help industry, and especially the small business community, get more clarity on who they are selling to and who they are delivering to. GovCon is historically conditioned to see the customer and end user as one-in-the-same. GSA’s takeover of these common purchases, including government-wide contracts, should indeed end up with more simplicity even as complexities emerge along the way.

If GSA’s OneGov initiative for centralized purchases of brand name commercial technology appears to be a lever of pressure on integrators and resellers …

Then it’s worth going back to the beginning and seeing the brand names GSA initially signed the agreements with. They were not so much about commercial technology, but more so about direct engagements with makers of consumer technology that really does not require much education on how they work across larger teams. Enterprise technology that is strictly made for a business setting requires different conversations and contractual arrangements.

If there is one part of the GovCon picture we are struggling to make sense out of because the elements of it seem to contradict one another …

Then it’s the climate of small business contracting because the Trump administration has yet to come up with a clear vision for how it wants these companies to participate in the market. On one hand, the desire for more competition should be a boon to small businesses. On the other hand, there is the 8(a) audit and other types of scrutiny on small business contracting. The White House still has room to make it all make more sense for small businesses though.

If industry and the Defense Department alike remain very, very worried that the CMMC cyber and supply chain standard is slow to get third-party assessment organizations on board …

Then it’s understandable as the math suggests a long, long way to go in getting more of those 3PAOs certified as compliant with the Pentagon’s new way of ensuring its industrial base is trusted. Hundreds of thousands of contractors and their subs need to be certified, but only dozens of 3PAOs are accredited to do the certifying. However, ISACA is now on board as the lead organization to do the accrediting. The entry of ISACA, being a bigger organization with experience in IT certifications, into the effort is at least a very good (re)start.

If 2025 was also the year of the “Space IPO” that saw Firefly and Voyager complete their public offerings with York Space Systems up next for 2026 …

Then let’s all get ready for SpaceX to follow suit. Let’s also renew hopes of a true initial public offering by a government technology and professional services company. But we will happily take the type of complex spin-merge transaction that took Amentum public in the fall of 2024. The more public companies we have, the more people see GovCon as a real industry versus being boutique and niche. More on that theme later.

If the stats don’t lie that nine out of 10 startups fail within their first five years of being in business, plus that roughly three-fourths of all venture-backed startups eventually do fail …

Then yes, we readily acknowledge that many of the companies’ capital raises we have covered in recent years will not lead to success and for reasons having little to do with the tech. There will be a whole lot of tombstones in the business sense, but they are still markers of history that tell the story of the market. The GovCon venture arms know all about the failure rate, and the federal government customer is getting to know all about it too.

If data centers were all the rage, literally, in so many communities around the U.S. because of all that comes with them …

Then that’s true of the U.S. government customer collective as well. While they have technology needs that dwarf other verticals in terms of complexity and resources, the appetite for pushing forward with the status quo on power supply and other factors is low. Unless the nuclear power push can get momentum going.

If there is one big business decision to watch out for in 2026 in this industry …

Then look squarely at Science Applications International Corp. and its board of directors as they search for new chief executive. SAIC is going in a different direction, and the CEO appointee will then be responsible for explaining that to its 24,000 employees and the public as well. More importantly, the next CEO will also likely be tasked with helping redefine the company.

If there is one *set* of big business decisions to watch out for in 2026 in this industry …

Then also keep tabs on the KBR global government services business unit, which is being set up to become a publicly-traded company and start going it alone in the mid-to-late part of the year. When KBR first announced the spin, it pegged Mission Technology Solutions’ size as roughly $5.8 billion in revenue and approximately 20,000 employees. Everything else is officially (publicly) TBD, including a CEO-designate and a name. But will MTS actually go it alone?

If Serco Inc. and The Aerospace Corp. were the lone two 2025 WT Top 50 companies to complete CEO transitions in 2025 and zero involved the Top 25…

Then we’re looking at a downturn from five involving the 2024 Top 25. Maybe an upturn here in 2026? As we said earlier, CEO hires and promotions tell us a lot about how companies making that decision see themselves in the landscape and where they want to go. Here again SAIC, everyone is watching for your choice.

If many of us are a little less productive from June 11 to June 19 ...

Then consider this advance notice that the men's World Cup will be on. No further explanation needed.